I was looking at Gary Watt's forecast for 2006/2007 and I won't bore you with numbers, because they are accurate within 2% for homes and condos sold. But what he says about the media portraying scary impending events as they relate to real estate.
We've all read or heard about declines in sales, increased foreclosure activity, blah, blah, etc. Gary attributes it to Newspapers, and Television's preserving advertising dollars by instilling anxiety in their readers/viewers.
He of course gave case in point examples which were meant to make us laugh. Last night though, I received a case-in-point example of my own and again this morning. Last night on the local news, the report focused on Riverside's falling market, and devestated communities, due to affordability. Of course they interviewed a local real estate agent who produced a DataQuick NOD list which was many pages thick. To the layman; it might appear the real estate market as fallen, especially in riverside. Really!? why are people still moving there?
The truth is that riverside has never historically been a strong market. What has driven their boom is the available vacant land that just isn't available anymore in other areas. Large communities were developed and people moved in. Many of those people got loans that they could not afford because they thought they were getting a great deal. What I keep hearing over and over is that those who moved out, now want back in. I'm not an economic analysist or anything so I won't tell you about all the people who blame it on the price of gas and distance from their job.
What I will tell you is that of the seemingly large numbers of foreclosures, the majority don't get foreclosed on. The seller's that are really in trouble are the ones who have no equity because of Neg. Am. Loans. Those are the ones, these stories should be about. The people who were ripped of by their lender. Not the misleading market decline.
This morning in the LA Time's business section, is an article about the people who bought homes, who would not have otherwise been able or wanted to. Guess what the conclusion is... They are the one's who will keep the United States out of Recession!
Really!? So what is it? Is the real estate market falling, or is real estate a stronger indicator of the overall economy than ever before? Or is the market doing just what its supposed to; adjusting to changing market factors?
To sum this little rant up. The statistics are great, but, the news is bad, until Wednesday morning when the news is good.
Thanks.
I'm interested in hearing of doomsday newsreports that don't seem to quite match your market figures I think I'll save them for next year and see if any come true.